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Jun 13 17 3:04 PM
investmentwatchblog.com / BY IWB · JUNE 12, 2017
by Umar Farooq
It takes just minutes to fill in the forms and get the loan. Applying
for the loan and taking the loan takes no time but the repayment looms
to last a lot longer.
“Experts have expressed concerns that the borrowing practices which
are fuelling the boom in global car finance have worrying similarities
to the sub-prime mortgage crisis a decade ago. In March, Santander
Consumer USA – the largest lender in the sub-prime car finance space –
was fined more than £20 million by US authorities for lending money to
borrowers who they knew could not make the repayments. More recently,
ratings agency Moody’s noted that Santander Consumer had verified the
income of just 8% of applicants for car loans.” Home.bt
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jun 24, 2017 11:05 AM
Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,
Economists spend inordinate time gauging the business cycle that they believe drives the US economy. However, the real engine running in the background (and nearly entirely forgotten) is the population cycle.
The positive population cycle is such a long running macro trend
thousands of years in the offing that it’s taken for granted. It is
wrongly assumed that upon every business cycle downturn,
accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will ultimately spur greater
demand and restart the business cycle once the excess capacity
and inventories are drawn down. However, I contend that the
population cycle has been the primary factor in ending each
recession…and this most macro of cycles is now rolling over.
Without this, America (nor the world) will truly emerge from the next
recession…instead it will morph into an unending downward cycle of
partial recoveries…contrary to all contemporary human experience.
The evidence for my contention begins with the 25-54yr/old US
population, which peaked in December 2007 and remains below that peak
ever since (this population is presently about 400k fewer than Dec of
’07). However, total US full time employment is now 3.6
million above the previous peak in 2007. This 25-54 to FT employment
relationship is now 1:1…just as it was in 1980 and 1970.
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